Lineage II Forums  
Go Back   Lineage II Forums > Lineage II Discussion > Player Questions

Login


Player Questions Attention new players (and veterans too)! Do you have questions about Lineage II? Looking for a drop? Need tips on a quest? Come on in and ask your questions here--players of all experience levels are welcome!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 11-16-2017, 10:22 AM   #1
Chucksteak
Thunder Wyrm
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 297
Chucksteak is an unknown quantity at this point
Default @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Hi Neutron!

Previously, in this discussion,

http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=293890

I had asked for drop rates on reward boxes, for the purposes of making an informed decision on purchasing N coin for an event.

Your response was;

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neutron View Post
I will ask if we can disclose more information like this in the future, but it's not currently possible.
As the title says, the future is now, and we finally have another "event" with witch rewards boxes are a part of. (The repeat fishing event was recycled, so I did not feel you would have a response since that event was technically in the past, not the future, er, present).

So, in accordance with your stated feelings on the matter, coupled with the promise of seeking some answers, what are the rates for each prize that can be obtained from the prize box's in this event?

Additionally, there is great speculation that the rates are different at different points in time, please include this information as well since it would obviously affect when I should attempt to open any boxes to obtain the rates you list.

I personally look forward to your response, as I believe this is an amazing opportunity to win some public favor, as well as providing essential information for anyone looking to make an informed purchase of your products.

Everyone else; Please try to refrain from personal attacks. I do really want this goal of getting rates accomplished, for us all, and I think it takes away from the seriousness I would like this issue to receive from the GMs.

-CS
Chucksteak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 10:28 AM   #2
mixa
Remnant Diabolist
 
mixa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Bulgaria
Posts: 2,258
mixa will become famous soon enoughmixa will become famous soon enough
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Noob
mixa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 10:30 AM   #3
Chucksteak
Thunder Wyrm
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 297
Chucksteak is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by mixa View Post
Noob
Give him a chance
Chucksteak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 01:16 PM   #4
Ifazass
Hungry Spirit
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 107
Ifazass is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Say nothing, if someone will attempt open let's say 4k capsules as I did at "Wrong time", will end up losing 40 billion and with a bunch of litter in your inventory like reputation scrolls and etc. U know Useless stuff by any means.

In last 2 month, my equipment value dropped down from 400b worth to 100b worth. Rates are so miserable that I see no future to progress in the game. Going down the hill at very fast pace. Idk no drops, no rewards from event stuff and only way to progress is buy from RMT pplz? It is very disappointing.

Last edited by Ifazass; 11-16-2017 at 01:31 PM.
Ifazass is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 02:03 PM   #5
allcom
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 77
allcom is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Chance you get that info is 0.
allcom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 02:19 PM   #6
socketka
Remnant Diabolist
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Slovakia
Posts: 1,662
socketka will become famous soon enough
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ifazass View Post
In last 2 month, my equipment value dropped down from 400b worth to 100b worth. Rates are so miserable that I see no future to progress in the game. Going down the hill at very fast pace. Idk no drops, no rewards from event stuff and only way to progress is buy from RMT pplz? It is very disappointing.
your? ncsoft is owner, not you
socketka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2017, 03:59 PM   #7
Ifazass
Hungry Spirit
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 107
Ifazass is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by socketka View Post
your? ncsoft is owner, not you
Ah shut up sucketka. Im ****** enough without your stupid comments.
Ifazass is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2017, 06:44 AM   #8
Devoid
Purgatory Shadow
 
Devoid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: The magical land of Fake News & Alternative Facts
Posts: 611
Devoid is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ifazass View Post
Ah shut up sucketka. Im ****** enough without your stupid comments.
he's right you know


Back on topic:
I don't see any legislation for non-gambling salon operators to disclose anything being passed around the world. So no, "the future" is definitely not "now".
Devoid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2017, 12:50 PM   #9
Miso
Tainted Zombie
 
Miso's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 87
Miso is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

The new Lineage 2 revolution displays enchant success/fail ratios. Now I’m not sure if Lineage 2 classic will switch gear and follow the suit on something that they’ve kept secret as part of their “mysterious in veil” effect. I believe displaying the rate would actually decrease the appetite and discourage a lot of people from actually spending the same if not less money on events, thus not a wise business move on NC’s end. In conclusion, I believe this one is to be left undisclosed as I personally like to not see the long shot odds when enchanting.
Miso is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2017, 05:43 PM   #10
Jackl
Grave Predator
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 391
Jackl is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Rates will not be posted until and official inquiry from your local gaming/gambling commission demands and verifies them.

Go to any store/casino that is a verified lotto dealer. They are required by law to have prizes, odds, and average return posted for every single game. Each game must be verified to be matching the posted rates.

The video game industry has been enjoying their exemptions for years now regarding microtransactions and unverified random rewards. That is coming to an end soon.
Jackl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2017, 06:19 PM   #11
Jacky
Remnant Diabolist
 
Jacky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,613
Jacky is on a distinguished road
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackl View Post
Rates will not be posted until and official inquiry from your local gaming/gambling commission demands and verifies them.

Go to any store/casino that is a verified lotto dealer. They are required by law to have prizes, odds, and average return posted for every single game. Each game must be verified to be matching the posted rates.

The video game industry has been enjoying their exemptions for years now regarding microtransactions and unverified random rewards. That is coming to an end soon.
It has to be, otherwise, customer does not know if chance is 0 and they just dumping money into toilet. If there is 10% chance to get something i can be pretty much sure if i buy 1000 capsules i get dem 7sigs. Otherwise it is robbery .
Jacky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 06:34 AM   #12
__SpOO__
Thunder Wyrm
 
__SpOO__'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Varna, Bulgaria
Posts: 325
__SpOO__ is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

"If there is 10% chance to get something i can be pretty much sure if i buy 1000 capsules i get dem 7sigs"

Well, this now above is totally wrong. You can have 10% of getting an item and buying 1000 capsules does not means at all that you will have that item.

Hell, even with 90% chance and buying 1000 capsules there is still a chance that you will not get it.
__SpOO__ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 10:43 AM   #13
m0da
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 80
m0da is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by __SpOO__ View Post
"If there is 10% chance to get something i can be pretty much sure if i buy 1000 capsules i get dem 7sigs"

Well, this now above is totally wrong. You can have 10% of getting an item and buying 1000 capsules does not means at all that you will have that item.

Hell, even with 90% chance and buying 1000 capsules there is still a chance that you will not get it.
No mate i am afraid that you are wrong..
A flat 10% means that there will be 1 occurrence in every 10 items..
If you open 1,000 items without even 1 occurrence then you will be like a man being hit by a thunder on a city street..
This may happen but it's so unlikely that doesn't affect statistics..

What you say makes sense only in the L2 world.. People in L2 call in general these random occurrences with the funny term of "Korean random"... I find this term really inspiring to be honest...

In L2, like also in the rest of the lottery world (sarcasm here), there is a term named Volatility.. The higher that is, the higher the deviations from the given success rate...

My opinion is that NCSoft's algorithm has a very low success rate for big rewards and very low volatility, which means that you can't get a good reward, unless you reach the actual success percentage... And the actual percentages for good rewards should be something like 0.00001...
m0da is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 10:54 AM   #14
AnotherSorc
Imperial Warlord
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Last Resistance
Posts: 1,488
AnotherSorc is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0da View Post
In L2, like also in the rest of the lottery world (sarcasm here), there is a term named Volatility.. The higher that is, the higher the deviations from the given success rate...

My opinion is that NCSoft's algorithm has a very low success rate for big rewards and very low volatility, which means that you can't get a good reward, unless you reach the actual success percentage... And the actual percentages for good rewards should be something like 0.00001...
Either that, or it's simply coincidence

I know of 2x 7S Energy on Naia from the current event:
- one guy bought 12.000 NC Coin Pack and got 7s
- one guy spent 1.200 NC Coin and got 7s
- lot of guys spent (much) more and got nothing good.

Ofc these are the numbers the "winners" told me and I didn't see it myself.
AnotherSorc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 10:56 AM   #15
Ox'bane
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
Ox'bane is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0da View Post
no mate i am afraid that you are wrong..
A flat 10% means that there will be 1 occurrence in every 10 items..
If you open 1,000 items without even 1 occurrence then you will be like a man being hit by a thunder on a city street..
This may happen but it's so unlikely that doesn't affect statistics..

What you say makes sense only in the l2 world.. People in l2 call in general these random occurrences with the funny term of "korean random"... I find this term really inspiring to be honest...

In l2, like also in the rest of the lottery world (sarcasm here), there is a term named volatility.. The higher that is, the higher the deviations from the given success rate...

My opinion is that ncsoft's algorithm has a very low success rate for big rewards and very low volatility, which means that you can't get a good reward, unless you reach the actual success percentage... And the actual percentages for good rewards should be something like 0.00001...
soooooooooooooo wrong, this isnt the coin toss experiment. U better get some books and study a little.
Ox'bane is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 11:10 AM   #16
m0da
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 80
m0da is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ox'bane View Post
soooooooooooooo wrong, this isnt the coin toss experiment. U better get some books and study a little.
Look mate i don't really know where exactly you disagree but in any case thank you for your advice and please do the same..

While you're doing so please also learn some manners.. They do help in communication with other human beings..
m0da is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 11:18 AM   #17
m0da
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 80
m0da is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by AnotherSorc View Post
Either that, or it's simply coincidence

I know of 2x 7S Energy on Naia from the current event:
- one guy bought 12.000 NC Coin Pack and got 7s
- one guy spent 1.200 NC Coin and got 7s
- lot of guys spent (much) more and got nothing good.

Ofc these are the numbers the "winners" told me and I didn't see it myself.
To begin with, as you correctly mentioned, i think only videos can prove something... People usually tend to exaggerate things, lie or even be mistaken for many many reasons..
Personally, i would believe one's saying about events only if i knew this guy personally and trusted him already..

For the rest you are right.. It maybe a coincidence or there might be something else we don't know..
In any case, 2 7S out of so many people trying isn't really a big percentage..
m0da is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2017, 02:06 PM   #18
Chucksteak
Thunder Wyrm
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 297
Chucksteak is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Don't leave me hanging Neutron!
Chucksteak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2017, 06:09 PM   #19
KissThis
Purgatory Shadow
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 646
KissThis is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackl View Post
Rates will not be posted until and official inquiry from your local gaming/gambling commission demands and verifies them.

Go to any store/casino that is a verified lotto dealer. They are required by law to have prizes, odds, and average return posted for every single game. Each game must be verified to be matching the posted rates.

The video game industry has been enjoying their exemptions for years now regarding microtransactions and unverified random rewards. That is coming to an end soon.
I have covered this in detail before on another thread that I can't find ATM, so I'll explain it again.

Gambling is looked at as putting money in and either A. Not getting Rewarded by "loosing" or B. Getting rewarded by "winning".
Loot boxes or in this case Capsules get around this by letting you "win" every time, there are 0 capsules that are filled with nothing, every single one has something in it. Therefor no matter how crappy the reward is, it in fact is still a reward, rarely the one you wanted. If you win every time, it cannot be labeled as gambling, because you cannot "loose".

I'm not agreeing with the practice of this, just merely educating people who refuse to read the Laws in which the company in question resides resides.

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0da View Post
No mate i am afraid that you are wrong..
A flat 10% means that there will be 1 occurrence in every 10 items..
If you open 1,000 items without even 1 occurrence then you will be like a man being hit by a thunder on a city street..
This may happen but it's so unlikely that doesn't affect statistics..

What you say makes sense only in the L2 world.. People in L2 call in general these random occurrences with the funny term of "Korean random"... I find this term really inspiring to be honest...

In L2, like also in the rest of the lottery world (sarcasm here), there is a term named Volatility.. The higher that is, the higher the deviations from the given success rate...

My opinion is that NCSoft's algorithm has a very low success rate for big rewards and very low volatility, which means that you can't get a good reward, unless you reach the actual success percentage... And the actual percentages for good rewards should be something like 0.00001...
2 things.
#1. See above point.

#2. If you have ever taken any kind of math class, not even advanced math you will know that statistics do not compound like you think they do.
10% chance to get good item 90% chance to get crap. Every time regardless of how many time you click your odds are always 90/10. It does not compound to 80/20, 70/30, 60/40.... Every single time. So even at a 99.99% rate to get the good stuff, opening 1,000,000 boxes it is still not guaranteed that you are going to get the good stuff STATISTICALLY.
KissThis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-22-2017, 08:29 AM   #20
m0da
Tainted Zombie
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 80
m0da is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: @Neutron - Aliens, the future is now

Quote:
Originally Posted by KissThis View Post
I have covered this in detail before on another thread that I can't find ATM, so I'll explain it again.

Gambling is looked at as putting money in and either A. Not getting Rewarded by "loosing" or B. Getting rewarded by "winning".
Loot boxes or in this case Capsules get around this by letting you "win" every time, there are 0 capsules that are filled with nothing, every single one has something in it. Therefor no matter how crappy the reward is, it in fact is still a reward, rarely the one you wanted. If you win every time, it cannot be labeled as gambling, because you cannot "loose".

I'm not agreeing with the practice of this, just merely educating people who refuse to read the Laws in which the company in question resides resides.

2 things.
#1. See above point.

#2. If you have ever taken any kind of math class, not even advanced math you will know that statistics do not compound like you think they do.
10% chance to get good item 90% chance to get crap. Every time regardless of how many time you click your odds are always 90/10. It does not compound to 80/20, 70/30, 60/40.... Every single time. So even at a 99.99% rate to get the good stuff, opening 1,000,000 boxes it is still not guaranteed that you are going to get the good stuff STATISTICALLY.
I don't really disagree with your 1st point.. I've also stated the same on previous threads... Regulations about gambling as of now, exempt games like L2 from gambling..
However, as also Jackl said these regulations might change in the future..
We all agree that what happens in L2 is a form of gambling, just not one that comes under the existing regulations and definitions..


About your point #2.. I have finished 2 universities followed by numerous seminars, certifications blah blah.. In all of these, math was always an essential part.. And i am talking about advanced maths..
So after this introduction, i will once more state that STATISTICS do work this way.. Otherwise, we wouldn't have statistics or use any percentages at all in every day life..
As you probably didn't notice, I never mentioned the word guarantee.. Statistics is not a guarantee, its called statistics for this reason.. What I said is that if you don't have an occurrence in 1,000,000 tries with a given probability of 10%, it will be like being hit by a thunder on a city street.. This might happen but it doesn't affect statistics...

You are being confused with the so called difference between the theoretical and experimental probability.. These 2 might not be the same but this difference tends to be reduced, close to diminished while the sample size is being increased.. 1 million cases is a huge sample size for statistics..

I hope now you understand what i said..
m0da is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:16 AM.